How Much Will Government Bailouts Actually Cost The American Taxpayer?
Richard Benson
Benson's Economic & Market Trends
August 11, 2008
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/benson/2008/0811.html
What is this economic disaster going to cost the taxpayer? Let's try to add it up.
The Federal Reserve: Let's say the Fed gets stiffed for $10 billion, a modest sum. That translates into $10 billion less in profits from the Fed to send the US Treasury, and $10 billion more for the taxpayer to pay.
Student Loans: We estimate that several hundred billion of student loans are outstanding, and the average debt per student is $20,000. Conservatively, put the cost down at $20 billion.
Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation: This government agency insures $2.5 trillion in Defined Benefit obligations. The PBGC covers 30,000 business plans and 44 million workers. The PBGC charges an insurance fee and has $55 billion in assets. Let's put the cost to the taxpayer at a conservative $30 billion.
Federal Housing Administration: The FHA has given insured single-family mortgages to about five million people and 17 percent (or one in six) are delinquent. These catastrophic losses represent the worst of "cash for trash" lending that is crushing financial institutions in subprime. Conservative cost is $20 billion.
Small Business Administration: At the end on 2007, the balance of these SBA loans totaled $235 billion, with cumulative losses of about six percent. But don’t let history of only 6 percent losses fool you. As the economy turns down, many of the businesses with SBA loans will fail. For now, let's put this bill at a $20 billion loss.
Federal Home Loan Banks: The FHLB has over $1 trillion in assets, but what are these assets really worth? Well, a lot of mortgages that went into the collateral are Alt-A loans (interest only, no income verification, principal deferred). The real challenge, though, will be between the FHLB and FDIC as they fight to determine who gets stuck with the losses when the banks, thrifts, and credit unions fail. Either way, we’ll foot the bill. Let's put this one down for $50 billion, which is only five percent of the assets of the FHLB.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation: Even if a large portion of the bad single-family mortgage debt can be pushed back into the FHLB or over to Fannie Freddie, total losses on construction, commercial properties and consumer loans will easily cost the FDIC, and therefore the US taxpayer, $100 billion. If the government encourages people not to pay their mortgages and live rent free at our expense, we’ll need to increase the expected FDIC bill to the American taxpayer to $150 billion.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: With a record number of homeowners considering whether to live free for 300 days by skipping their mortgage payments, imagine the cash gap that will open up between the cash that comes into Fannie & Freddie from mortgage payments, and the cash that must go out to cover the GSE security payments. For the government, it is more important to spread the losses into the future than to minimize them. Losses on defaulted mortgage loans at the GSEs will be horrible. Put the bailout cost at $300 billion.
Internet Censorship Alert
Internet Censorship Alert: Alex Jones exposes agenda to 'blacklist' dissenting sites (March 14, 2010)
As I predicted, the Obama Administration is trying to shut down the Internet - at least the parts he doesn't like. Barack Obamas regulatory czar, Cass Sunstein has stated that he wants to ban conspiracy theories from the internet. Think about what this means - Every video, every website, every blog, every email, that exposes or just criticizes the government for any reason whatsoever could be labeled a "conspiracy" and taken down. Your home could be raided in the middle of the night, and you could be carted of to jail for criticizing the government. All they have to do is call it a "conspiracy theory".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqAWmBLFodE
Thursday, August 28, 2008
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