Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?
An International Historical Comparison*
Carmen M. Reinhart
University of Maryland and the NBER
and
Kenneth S. Rogoff
Harvard University and the NBER
Feb 5, 2008
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/
Is_The_US_Subprime_Crisis_So_Different.pdf (PDF, 40 KB)
As a benchmark for the 2007 U.S. sub-prime crisis, we draw on data from the eighteen bank-centered financial crises from the post-War period, as identified by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) and Gerard Caprio et. al. (2005):
These crisis episodes include:
The Five Big Five Crises: Spain (1977), Norway (1987), Finland (1991), Sweden (1991) and Japan (1992), where the starting year is in parenthesis.
Other Banking and Financial Crises: Australia (1989), Canada (1983), Denmark (1987), France (1994), Germany (1977), Greece (1991), Iceland (1985), and Italy (1990), and New Zealand (1987), United Kingdom (1974, 1991, 1995), and United States (1984).
The "Big Five" crises are all protracted large scale financial crises that are associated with major declines in economic performance for an extended period. Japan (1992), of course, is the start of the "lost decade," although the others all left deep marks as well.
The remaining rich country financial crises represent a broad range of lesser events. The 1984 U.S. crisis, for example, is the savings and loan crisis. In terms of fiscal costs (3.2 percent of GDP), it is just a notch below the "Big Five". Some of the other 13 crisis are relatively minor affairs, such as the 1995 Barings (investment) bank crisis in the United Kingdom or the 1994 Credit Lyonnaise bailout in France. Excluding these smaller crises would certainly not weaken our results, as the imbalances in the run-sup were minor compared to the larger blowouts.
Internet Censorship Alert
Internet Censorship Alert: Alex Jones exposes agenda to 'blacklist' dissenting sites (March 14, 2010)
As I predicted, the Obama Administration is trying to shut down the Internet - at least the parts he doesn't like. Barack Obamas regulatory czar, Cass Sunstein has stated that he wants to ban conspiracy theories from the internet. Think about what this means - Every video, every website, every blog, every email, that exposes or just criticizes the government for any reason whatsoever could be labeled a "conspiracy" and taken down. Your home could be raided in the middle of the night, and you could be carted of to jail for criticizing the government. All they have to do is call it a "conspiracy theory".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqAWmBLFodE
Thursday, September 4, 2008
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